Turbulence describes the business environment over the last 25 years, and there is no sign of it letting up. This means that leaders for the foreseeable future will be surrounded by our old friend VUCA – volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Turning this into an opportunity to adapt requires that we ask the right questions.
The Wright Brothers were not the only ones pursuing flight, yet they are considered the first ones to achieve it. What did they do differently? More specifically, how did they approach the VUCA of imagining, building, and testing a flying machine before one existed? Isn’t this what Apple does so well?
While other designers of aircraft sought stable flight (think American Auto Industry), the Wright Brothers were the only ones interested in unstable flight. They asked the question: How can a “dipped wing” (one wing dropping lower than the other) be manually controlled while air borne? This led them to the finding that twisting or warping a wing would increase its lift. By designing instability into the system, the system (an aircraft in flight) became resilient to the constantly changing flight environment and responsive to manual control. Paradoxically, flexibility produced dynamic stability. All you frequent fliers still see this today, the wings of aircraft flex and undulate during flight. Simply put, the turbulence of the environment (air flow) is absorbed by the dynamic stability (designed instability) of the system (plane). Or, the plane adapts to the conditions of the environment as they rapidly change.
It may seem that I am beating the drum on this but what is the number one thing that executives ask the organization to do every year? Predict what will happen and then write an operating plan against these predictions. Under these conditions, is it any wonder that when VUCA winds blow and organizations are “forced to change” their efforts are bound to fail 70% of the time? Adaptive Change is about designing and leading organizations that are built for unstable flight!
So let’s start…get a pencil and paper and answer these questions by doodling, mind mapping, or drawing – whatever you do, get your right brain involved:
- What environmental conditions are most likely to create turbulence in the next 12 months? Include political, social, environmental, economic, technological, customer variables (values, experience, lifestyle, desires), and last and most predictable the actions of your competitors.
- What will increase the probability any of these will happen (amplify the conditions)? What will decrease the probability (dampen the conditions)?
- What future am I trying to create within these conditions?
- What 3-5 conditions of turbulence do I want to be ready to adapt to? These become the Destabilizing Events that you track closely over time and include in your operating plan.
- What does unstable flight look like in these conditions? This becomes the framework of your operating plan.
- What must I do as a leader to alert everyone to these variables so that they are watching for weak signals of their presence and telling me when they suspect them?